Forum:2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/Ita
23P.ITA Tropical Low A new tropical low with an ill-defined convection has been identified. The JTWC has designated the system Invest 97P, and some development of this low is expected in the next 48 to 72 hours. For the while, Invest 97P has a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 17:55, April 1, 2014 (UTC) :It is looking likely the JTWC will classify this low. Near the Solomon Islands, deep convection is wrapping into the cyclone's consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC). Additionally, it is in a favorable development environment with low wind shear. Consequently, the JTWC now gives Invest 97P a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 12:22, April 2, 2014 (UTC) ::A new tropical depression per the JTWC is almost certain. With a low wind shear environment surrounding it and persistent deep convection evident, a TCFA has been issued for Invest 97P. Current intensity: 25 to 30 knots (30 to 35 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/1001 mbar (hPa). AndrewTalk To Me 00:44, April 4, 2014 (UTC) :::As Invest 97P continues to move away from the Solomon Islands, its LLCC should continue to consolidate. A TCFA remains in effect. AndrewTalk To Me 11:34, April 4, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 23P The JTWC has classified Invest 97P as Tropical Cyclone 23P due to deep convection over the eastern flank of its LLCC. Albeit an exposed western LLCC, the system is producing winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). Owing to low wind shear, as Cyclone 23P tracks along the northern edge of a subtropical ridge, gradual intensification is forecast, with a peak of 75 knots (85 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/90 knot (100 mph) gusts expected as it nears Queensland. AndrewTalk To Me 21:55, April 4, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Ita Based on a curved banding pattern in this tropical low (dubbed 15U by the BoM), Dvorak estimates have helped the BoM upgrade the low into Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Ita. Currently, its assessed intensity is at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/997 hPa (mbar; 29.44 inHg). Ita is expected to move along the periphery of a Coral Sea subtropical ridge for the next few days, along with a temporary halt in movement from a trough exiting western Australia. With low vertical wind shear, the cyclone should have no problem reaching severe tropical cyclone intensity by Monday per the BoM forecast track until wind shear comes in. Meanwhile, on the JTWC side, improving deep convection and a consolidating LLCC have helped the agency pinpoint Ita's intensity - 45 knot (50 mph) winds (1-minute sustained) with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph). Like the BoM, Ita is expected to move alongside the subtropical ridge and gradually intensify to a peak of 80 knots (90 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/100 knot (115 mph) gusts due to low vertical wind shear. Stay safe from Ita, Australia! She and her WPAC twin could cause a lot of trouble! AndrewTalk To Me 13:33, April 5, 2014 (UTC) : Oh no, Australia could get a big beating from this storm. Stay safe Australia! As a tropical low, she has already caused 16 deaths in the Honiara area from flash flooding, hopefully Australia will make it out safe... Steve820 20:54, April 5, 2014 (UTC) ::Sorry to hear all the deaths. Sadly, things are looking uglier in the future for Ita. BoM reports a slightly higher pressure of 998 hPa (mbar; 29.47 inHg), but this is not to going to signal any weakening. The agency forecasts a peak of 90 knots (105 mph, 165 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/956 mbar (hPa; 28.23 inHg) in the coming five days, giving us our fourth severe tropical cyclone of the season. The JTWC have upgraded Ita's winds to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph, 105 km/h). Gradual intensification to 90 knots (105 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/110 knot (125 mph) gusts is forecasted as Ita moves alongside a subtropical ridge. Continue to prepare, Australia! AndrewTalk To Me 00:58, April 6, 2014 (UTC) :::Not much intensity change has been reported from either the BoM or JTWC, but the BoM has noted Ita's convection is starting to weaken. Nevertheless, they have raised the cyclone's forecast peak pressure to 955 mbar (hPa; 28.20 inHg) due to the favorable enviornment ahead of it. AndrewTalk To Me 12:15, April 6, 2014 (UTC) The Latest JTWC forecast takes it up to a 100 mph storm heading towards northern Queensland in the next few days, it also looks a lot better organized on sattelite imagery than it did a few days ago. At worst, this might be something on the scale of Winifred of 1986 when it hits. Ryan1000 15:51, April 7, 2014 (UTC) : According to JTWC, Ita's strengthened to 90 knots and it's predicted to reach 110 knots before directly striking Queensland, and then apparently in the long term, it'll curve southwest and move back into the South Pacific! Hopefully Queensland won't get a huge beating from this beast. Steve820 03:17, April 10, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita This is starting to look like a very scary storm for the folks in Queensland. Ita is now a Category 5 on the Australian scale, a 4 on the SSHWS, and the strongest storm of the Australian season. I don't know what the current 10-min sustained winds are, but the JTWC estimates that Ita's intensity is at 115 kts (1-min) and 934 mbar, with a forecast peak of 135 kts! It's forecast to weaken slightly before landfall, but everyone in the path of this thing still needs to batten down the hatches, and pronto. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:59, April 10, 2014 (UTC) : Wow, this thing intensified a lot faster than I expected. Cyclone Ita was originally expected to be a cat 2 at landfall, but now it's on the doorstep of category 5 strength, the same as Yasi of 2011 (although Yasi was 3-4 times bigger than Ita and affected a more populated area). Either way, they better take cover from this one, it could be a really nasty night for the folks in north Queensland. Ryan1000 01:18, April 11, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Ita (2nd time) And as fast as she rose, Ita comes crashing down after making landfall in Australia. The cyclone is currently at 40 knots (45 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/994 mbar (hPa) per the BoM and 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph) per the JTWC. A trough will drive Ita away from Australia and continue its weakening, as forecasted by the BoM and JTWC. The BoM do expect a brief reintensification to 45 knots (50 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) before doing so, however. Twenty-three fatalities have been reported from Ita, with another 40 missing. Along with Christine, Ita appears to be a goner. In addition, this cyclone has overtopped Gillian as the season's strongest storm by pressure. AndrewTalk To Me 13:35, April 12, 2014 (UTC) :Ita is now back over the Coral Sea. A broad eye pattern and a well-defined center have both been noted on satellite imagery. The BoM has lowered the cyclone's pressure to 995 mbar (hPa) while keeping its winds the same. Intensification to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/988 mbar (hPa) is expected as Ita interacts with a trough and continues to depart from Australia. The JTWC has not reported much change recently, and also expect a slow demise. As a side note, the impact from Ita in the Solomon Islands has been described as "unprecedented". AndrewTalk To Me 02:17, April 13, 2014 (UTC) :She is dead and 99% retire. She was the worst storm to affect the Solomon islands in record and the earthquake that affect them didn't make things easier, and even if the solomons wouldn't had been affected Australia would have requested as Australia request everything that touch them.Allanjeffs 02:40, April 15, 2014 (UTC)